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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
 Posted - December 30 2003 : 03:17:02 AM
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As I feared. I think I grasp the point, but feel it irrelevant.
The stoplight syllogism isn't valid. They weren't locked in a street. If cars two, seven, and eleven were going with Benteen, they could take a left out of line and speed up to catch the lead unit. They could trot or gallop to catch up but the time and energy expended overall would correspond to a walk over the distance.
Whether it was three or four mph isn't relevant, because overall it fit the time expended by a gait generally recalled and is plausible. Same with the other gaits. As your provided evidence suggests, the Army cheerfully used different speeds for the same gait, suggesting some were 'preferred' speeds.
I especially like the reference to "action enough to be attractive," which drips of the reviewing stand, Kentucky bluegrass, and flat Eastern paddocks near publishing houses with futzy officers and their pocket watches. In a few years, the same geographic area produced wizards exhorting cavalry as the weapon to charge machine guns, in line abreast and with action enough to be attractive.
It may be Gray just grabbed ballpark speeds out of his butt OR he might actually be more accurate than the conflicting manuals based on his own research on Western combat, but since no one gait could be maintained ('duh' indeed)on that ground (divide to river)till the end, I don't think it particularly meaningful, and I don't see how this alters Gray's interlocks.
Further, along with suggesting we view some things, conveniently, as averages, you indicated you agree that Gray was simply providing plausibility checks - to which might be added probability - to testimony. If a time line checked by sightings at both ends shows someone made three miles in an hour and he also said he was walking his horse, Gray finds nothing to argue with. That the manual says 4 doesn't alter that, and if the distance covered was three and a half or four miles, no warning flags arise for me or, I'd postulate (and hope), would it for Gray. |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - December 30 2003 : 12:22:20 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
As I feared. I think I grasp the point, but feel it irrelevant.
Don’t lose any sleep over it.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
The stoplight syllogism isn't valid. They weren't locked in a street.
Actually they were stopped at a toll gate that the Indians threw up to delay the advance of the regiment. It was at this point that Custer sent his lesser-known message, “Benteen. Come on. Be quick. Tollgate. Bring a butt load of dimes! P.S. Bring up some analogies too cuz the machine won’t take syllogisms!”
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
If cars two, seven, and eleven were going with Benteen, they could take a left out of line and speed up to catch the lead unit. They could trot or gallop to catch up but the time and energy expended overall would correspond to a walk over the distance.
By regulation, they would move right out of column.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Whether it was three or four mph isn't relevant, because overall it fit the time expended by a gait generally recalled and is plausible. Same with the other gaits. As your provided evidence suggests, the Army cheerfully used different speeds for the same gait, suggesting some were 'preferred' speeds.
I missed the cheerful part. I guess I need to read more carefully in the future so I too can feel the joy.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
I especially like the reference to "action enough to be attractive," which drips of the reviewing stand, Kentucky bluegrass, and flat Eastern paddocks near publishing houses with futzy officers and their pocket watches. In a few years, the same geographic area produced wizards exhorting cavalry as the weapon to charge machine guns, in line abreast and with action enough to be attractive.
Hunh?
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
It may be Gray just grabbed ballpark speeds out of his butt
Ya think?
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
OR he might actually be more accurate than the conflicting manuals based on his own research on Western combat, but since no one gait could be maintained ('duh' indeed)on that ground (divide to river)till the end, I don't think it particularly meaningful, and I don't see how this alters Gray's interlocks.
We’ll get to this in my next post.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Further, along with suggesting we view some things, conveniently, as averages, you indicated you agree that Gray was simply providing plausibility checks - to which might be added probability - to testimony. If a time line checked by sightings at both ends shows someone made three miles in an hour and he also said he was walking his horse, Gray finds nothing to argue with. That the manual says 4 doesn't alter that, and if the distance covered was three and a half or four miles, no warning flags arise for me or, I'd postulate (and hope), would it for Gray.
Okeedoke. As we proceed to the next piece of this thread—time and space, I’ll use the mph you are most comfy with, i.e. 3-6-9.
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
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Posted - December 30 2003 : 7:28:15 PM
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I've been axed several times to 'splain the so what of my blitherings. Here is one example of what I view as a failure on the part of Gray to fully explore his time-motion methodology. Space must be considered also to get, in my view, a more accurate representation of the events surrounding the BLBH.
On Table 5 (p. 251), Gray lists the distance from the division halt to Lone Tepee as 8 miles for Custer-Reno Bns, the packtrain, and Boston Custer. Is this measurement accurate for time-motion-space analysis? I say no and here’s why. When the regiment stopped at the division halt it was in column with companies in columns of four; Command Group, then 11 companies, the pack train, and the 12th company as rear guard. The pack train (and Boston Custer) will not move again until 20 minutes after the regiment departs. When it does move, it now has to traverse the ground no longer occupied by the regiment to get to the "8 miles to Lone Tepee start point".
What was that distance? How long does it take to traverse the ground formerly occupied by 11 companies? I’ll leave the answers to these questions to the reader but I’ll provide a set of options for you to cogitate over; to pick and choose from and decide which one makes you feel good.
What was that distance?
a. Irrelevant! Gray wuz trackin’ like a railroad! (Please move on to the next post—I’m only going to be annoying from this point forward and you don’t need that).
b. The Packed Like Sardines Scenario.
c. The Regulation Scenario (AKA The Futzy Wizards with Pocket Watches Scenario—whatever that means).
d. The Strung-out Scenario.
In the packed like sardines scenario, the regiment maintains 0 distance between sets of four and 0 distance between companies. Given our average company of 8 sets of four plus the company commander and trumpeter at the lead, that equals 9 slots or sets of horses. Each horse is 3 yards in length so a company in column of fours is 27 yards long. If we times this by 11 (the number of companies in front of the pack trains) we get 297 yards (or about 1/6 miles) that the trains must traverse to get to the beginning of the 8 miles to Lone Tepee.
In the regulation scenario, the regiment maintains 1 yard between sets of four and 16 yards between companies. Given 9 slots or sets of horses, that equals our 27 yards plus 8 yards for the gaps between sets of four within the company. To complete the block distance for a company, we add 16 yards from the nose of the company commander’s horse to the ass end of the horses of the last set of four of the company to its front—this yields a length of 51 yards per company (except the lead company which is 35 yards long). If we times 51 by 10 and add 35 for the lead company we get 545 yards (or about 1/3 miles) that the trains must traverse to get to the beginning of the 8 miles to Lone Tepee.
In the strung-out scenario, I use Captain Felton’s observation from, Lecture No. 6, The Army on the March, to give us our extreme counter to the packed like sardines scenario. On page 17 he observes, “In calculating the length of a column further allowance must be made for elongation – sometimes as much as 25 per cent.” So 545 yards (per regulation times 25% yields a column length of about 680 yards (or 3/8 miles).
So the distance to be traveled by the packs to the “start point” was between 297-680 yards.
How long does it take to traverse the ground formerly occupied by 11 companies?
At Gray’s 3 mph march rate for the trains, this equates to the following based on your selection of b, c, or d above:
Sardines: 297 yards takes 3 minutes
Regulation: 545 yards takes 5 ½ minutes
Strung-out: 680 yards takes 7 minutes
So Gray’s departure time (12:32) for the trains from 8 miles to Lone Tepee should be one of the following:
Sardines: 12:35 p.m.
Regulation: 12:37:30 p.m.
Strung-out: 12:39 p.m.
From 3:32:30 to 3:37:30, Gray has Boston Custer capable of viewing the Reno fight (Table 13, pg. 339). According to Gray, Reno begins to withdraw his skirmish line into the timber at 3:33 with Boston Custer arriving 30 seconds earlier to witness the event and five minutes to watch while en route to Custer. Talk about the “cavalry” arriving in the nick o’ time. Gray observes, “On being questioned for news from the rear, Boston could have given the general only excessively good new. He could report that he had passed Benteen above the Lone Tepee, from which Custer could figure that, if Boston had overtaken at a trot, then Benteen, so often ordered to hurry, ought not be far behind. As to Reno, Boston could only report seeing him still fighting in the timber and thus holding out. Both items may have encouraged Custer to wait for reinforcements and ammunition. P 354.
Keeping Gray’s entire set of “connections” and attendant metrics constant (an erroneous method in my opinion), the impacts (price of bread) of the above are as follows:
Adjusted Windows for Boston Custer to Observe Reno’s withdrawal to the timber at 3:33:
Sardines: 3:35:30 to 3:40:30 – Might be able to see cavalry dudes moving into the timber
Regulation: 3:38:00 to 3:43:00 – Cavalry dudes almost hidden from sight in the timber
Strung-out: 3:39:30 to 3:44:30 – Cavalry dudes prolly hidden from sight in the timber
Bottomline on this particular example of Gray’s mis-connections is if you need Boston Custer to see somethin’ for your view of why Custer did what he did beyond Medicine Tail Coulee, you need to make some adjustments—Gray would--and did regularly.
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - December 31 2003 : 10:56:01 AM
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Wouldn't that possibly be explained by B Custer breaking into a gallop periodically?
Further, I recall the train started off about twenty minutes after the three battalions from the divide halt but, given the downhill, isn't it possible that they surged past the slistering 3mph walk for awhile following a broken trail?
Gray finds a beginning and an end and calculates what the gait and speed would be. He is not saying that the important thing is the gait, only that the derived gait and speed for the time constraints and energy depletion considerations are possible. You seem to be saying that Gray insists the important thing is that Boston kept a trot and that doesn't match up with the assumed added 6th of a mile. Gray only says that a trot is a reasonable assumption and perfectly feasible. (Gray does, admittedly, say 'undoubtedly' but that still doesn't violate his theory.) |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - December 31 2003 : 11:36:24 AM
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| Show your math and I'll let you know what I think. |
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - December 31 2003 : 5:18:18 PM
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Well, you're saying that instead of going 8 miles (14080 yards)in 2 hours 40 minutes (that's taking out the watering time)they had to go 14760 (worst case scenario)in that time, correct? That's a difference of 4.83%. That could only be accomplished if, instead of 3 mph, the pack train made the unheard of speed of 3.1 mph (roughly) to arrive when Gray suggests they did. That's 3.1 x 2.66 = 8.25 miles. Close enough. I would imagine any adjustment to Boston's gait would be equally stupendous to bring him to view Reno's retreat in time, yet....
....secondly, even if the soldiers weren't visible, the firing and surrounding Indians would suggest what was going on although....
....third, I don't think Boston made a dif one way or the other to what Custer did. |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 04 2004 : 8:56:54 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Well, you're saying that instead of going 8 miles (14080 yards) in 2 hours 40 minutes (that's taking out the watering time) they had to go 14760 (worst case scenario) in that time, correct?
Your math is correct; in a word—commendable. Your translation of what I’m saying (or have said) is not correct; in a word—disingenuous. An interesting use of misdirection though. As to the speed of the pack train throughout the day of the 25th, this is a subject I am developing and will share when complete. In no uncertain terms, I have not addressed this issue to date. At this point, I will say that your pack trains math will not match mine—by a long shot. As to the original math problem, I’ll give you an opportunity to redeem your integrity and show your math relevant to the problem originally presented--by you.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
That's a difference of 4.83%. That could only be accomplished if, instead of 3 mph, the pack train made the unheard of speed of 3.1 mph (roughly) to arrive when Gray suggests they did. That's 3.1 x 2.66 = 8.25 miles. Close enough.
For rookies maybe…
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
I would imagine any adjustment to Boston's gait would be equally stupendous to bring him to view Reno's retreat in time, yet....
Ah—back to the original math problem.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
....secondly, even if the soldiers weren't visible, the firing and surrounding Indians would suggest what was going on although....
And Boston Custer fully fluent in Custer’s plans—which seem to have escaped the comprehension of his battalion commanders—would be able to translate what he saw in a meaningful fashion to his big brother. Yes, I see.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
....third, I don't think Boston made a dif one way or the other to what Custer did.
Not my issue. But Gray, Fox, Sklenar might debate you on this point (‘cept Gray maybe—he sleeps with the fishes).
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Edited by - Wrangler on January 04 2004 8:59:03 PM |
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Halmyers
Private
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 04 2004 : 11:43:08 PM
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I have no wish to get myself in the middle of this most interesting
subject, but I would like to point out a little in infromation about
boston Custer. In "The Custer Myth" page 290,trooper Martin tells of
his meeting Boston Custer. As you know he was taking a message to
Capt Benteen. He states that he met Boston Custer just before he had
come to the hill that Custer had been on. He wanted to know where the
General was and Martin told him where to go. Martin then rode on up
the hill, and said he seen Maj Reno in action and rode on to Benteen.
Now Martin did see Reno in action but did say he did not hang around
to watch, but did say that they where dismounted and in skirmish line. If Boston Custer had seen anything, then the only thing he
could have seen was the charge and the skirmish line in action. I will have more later.
Hal |
Thanks
Hal Myers |
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 04 2004 : 11:54:37 PM
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Utterly lost as to what your point is, then. Also, don't know to what 'point' of mine you are referring to as the basis for all this. I don't think it's just me, Larson seemed to reflect hesitation as well.
I'm making no claims for Boston Custer and don't think him much of an issue. He left the train before the eight mile run ended and for no reason except that he wanted to and he was allowed to go without much comment, an event that probably speaks to the typicalities of a Custer command: nepotism, cronyism, and cliques. Other reflections of these traits after Weir Point (where I think he got wounded with the result being the five companies didn't operate as a joint command and didn't react logically)may have come back and bit the General that day.
I don't agree with those, like Gray, who think Boston a key issue; I only note that, if Boston zooted by later than Gray thought, there were other possible clues he might have divined as to Reno's plight. I've already said I think the simplest explanation for LSH and environs is Benteen's: absolute confusion, which I think was due to a wounded, not dead, Custer nobody dared overrule. I think these ridiculously complex manuevers of which Custer had never previously been guilty make no sense at base regardless of Indian numbers.
I will admit to what I think is one of your contentions: that Gray chose interpretations that supported his regard for Custer. But again, Custer had been so defamed by idiotic theories (fear of water, Presidential Lust, simple bloodymindedness, stupidity, cowardice...) that Gray may have sought to flatten some gasbags.
However, if you think increased incremental precision is 1.) possible or 2.) of pivotal import then I think you're wrong. It simply cannot be done, at least now. All that can be done is what Gray did: eliminate some impossibilities, allow other things to be considered as possible. Any time or rate calculations involving places east of the decimal is WAY too precise for anything regarding horses (never mind mules, for heaven's sake), men zoned out on time issues, and combat in general.
Rookies, if enthusiastic, tend to have a devotion to implausible overprecision. Experience will often, although not always, indicate otherwise.
I welcome your coming analysis of the pack train, and admire your dedication to it. I will predict that its veracity, and that of all these theorems, will hang on what people meant by "arrive" and other innocuous words. And because people are quite handy at varying their own definitions even when not traumatized, this will be a bugaboo for the sort of precision you're seeking.
Of course, I myself am never wrong....... |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 12:04:31 AM
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Gray On Marching: The Wet Paper Bag with Both Ends Open.
One of the finer points of military marching is understanding the difference between the concepts of march speed and march rate. Gray does not seem to be aware that these are distinctly different concepts. His confusion creates the curious circumstance on 23 June when the regiment “halts for packtrain” for 30 minutes despite the fact that the trains and regiment are marching using the same march “speeds” [sic – rates]. Gray will use these same march rates for his 25 June calculations. One would think that if the regiment and packs were traveling at the same speeds, there should be no need to halt for 30 minutes for the packtrain to catch up. Perhaps march speeds and march rates can’t be used interchangeably. So what are they?
March speed is the actual speed of the entities which comprise a formation given a particular pace or gait (the pace is generally used for infantry and the gait for cavalry). The combination of these entity speeds defines the speed of the formation. It is for this reason—the formation—that the speeds promulgated in drill manuals are selected. Given the speed capabilities of the component entities, there are paces and gaits that will fit the majority of those in the formation—else it will quickly cease to be a formation. Plow horses need not apply and Secretariat comes but once in a blue moon--and if it did, it wouldn't be in the cavalry.
March rate is the number of miles traveled per hour/day/week by a particular type of unit as impacted by the various paces and/or gaits used throughout the day and the rest halts. March rates are used by commanders and/or planners to approximate potential progress of movements during a campaign. As an example, in a given hour, a cavalry formation might walk for 20 minutes, trot for 20 minutes, walk dismounted for 10 minutes and rest for 10 minutes. Using march speeds of 3.75, 7.5, 2.5, and 0 respectively, during this hour the march rate would be 4.2 mph. Following this regimen, a commander and/or planner could estimate that a column marching eight hours could cover—terrain permitting—about 33 miles. Vary the regimen and the rate of march changes.
Gray errs by substituting his unsubstantiated march rates for speeds in his 25 June calculations—especially after the division halt. Gaits and halts are generally known from this point on through testimony of the participants. The effect of Gray’s error is the slowing down of the evolution of the battle--especially with regards to anybody in the rear with the gear--and that includes Benteen. Custer and Reno are fleet of foot with an average walking speed (according to Gray) in excess of 3.8 mph after the divide on the 25th. Simply put—it takes a longer time to “get there” using march rates versus march speeds.
In my next missive..."Table 1: DeWolf in Gray's Clothing"... |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 01:55:41 AM
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But first, the weather...quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Utterly lost as to what your point is, then. Also, don't know to what 'point' of mine you are referring to as the basis for all this. I don't think it's just me, Larson seemed to reflect hesitation as well.
Hang in there. I’m confident you’ll catch up.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
I'm making no claims for Boston Custer and don't think him much of an issue.
A sound conclusion.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
…if Boston zooted by later than Gray thought, there were other possible clues he might have divined as to Reno's plight.
Such as?
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
I will admit to what I think is one of your contentions: that Gray chose interpretations that supported his regard for Custer.
Gray had a regard for Custer? His time-motion analysis seems to indicate a regard for Reno and Benteen.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
However, if you think increased incremental precision is 1.) possible or 2.) of pivotal import then I think you're wrong.
It is not precision I seek. I have a book full of precision in Custer’s Last Campaign. I seek an accurate representation of the battle. If you don’t want to make the trip, have a nice day.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
It simply cannot be done, at least now. All that can be done is what Gray did: eliminate some impossibilities, allow other things to be considered as possible.
A cogent point. Let’s examine this further. Look for my, “Gray Maneuvers at the Morass: Or How 15 to 30 Gets Ya 20”. Coming soon to a theater near you.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Any time or rate calculations involving places east of the decimal is WAY too precise for anything regarding horses (never mind mules, for heaven's sake), men zoned out on time issues, and combat in general.
Gray does use decimal points a bit much--but I thought I was the guy attacking his work. Thank-you for your support.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Rookies, if enthusiastic, tend to have a devotion to implausible overprecision.
A little harsh on Gray don’t you think?
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Experience will often, although not always, indicate otherwise.
It would be great if we could find somebody like this and have him join the forum.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
I welcome your coming analysis of the pack train, and admire your dedication to it. I will predict that its veracity, and that of all these theorems, will hang on what people meant by "arrive" and other innocuous words. And because people are quite handy at varying their own definitions even when not traumatized, this will be a bugaboo for the sort of precision you're seeking.
For supporting my efforts in this regard, and in your honor, I’ll name one of the mules in the pack train after you—Ee-yore 2.0
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Of course, I myself am never wrong.......
I never thought it for a moment.
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 09:55:29 AM
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Again, I don't see the meaningful conflict, despite all your off stage clash of cymbal and threatening portentious music.
On June 23, if they waited 30 minutes for the train to catch up, were they waiting for the train as a unit with the lead mule 30 minutes behind or only elements spread all over the road due to lousy packing in rugged country? Are you (or is the testimony) saying the pack train, as a unit, fell behind 30 minutes or only that its tail was dragging way behind? If they waited thirty minutes for the last mule to bump into the penultimate, that wouldn't indicate a huge lag. Would such testimonial conflict with Gray's timetable raise an eyebrow within that regiment or a sustained 'eh, what can you do?' response.
And again, all Gray is doing is finding the start and end, calculating the time, and applying it to plausibility, which is rate, not speed. This might have resulted in his average and lower 'speeds,' but I'm not seeing implausibilities emerging from this possibility of yours yet.
He may - or may not - have misused rate and speed but so might some of the testimony, especially in the manner that some has come down to us through third parties. The glossary of terminology has to be established and maintained, and I sincerely doubt that, in regards to LBH, it has ever existed at all since it made it into the media before into a formal record, and trying to back load it is perilous.
Just make sure the mule named for me was the most stubborn and loud and bearing the sobriquet of something like Arnold Son of Golgatha out of Estelle. Anyway, Milne wasn't born yet, was he? |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 4:29:21 PM
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| Hey I like this technique. I'll suggest a title for a posting and you write the rebuttal. We'll be through with this thread in record time. I think I still have one other title out there awaiting comment. |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 6:57:12 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Halmyers
I would like to point out a little information about Boston Custer. In "The Custer Myth" page 290, trooper Martin tells of his meeting Boston Custer. As you know he was taking a message to Capt Benteen. He states that he met Boston Custer just before he had come to the hill that Custer had been on. He wanted to know where the General was and Martin told him where to go.
Hal,
You bring up an interesting point and a misconnection on Gray’s part that I had missed.
On Table 13 (Gray, 339), Boston Custer meets Martin at 3:37:30. In Martin’s words, “Just before I got to the hill I met Boston Custer” (Graham, 290). On Table 7 (Gray, 290), it lists Reno’s skirmish line withdraws to the timber at 3:33:00. This is at least 3 ½ minutes before Martin is in position on the hill to observe, “When I got up on the hill, I looked down and there I saw Reno’s battalion in action. It had been not more than ten or fifteen minutes since the General and I were on the hill…there were lots of [Indians] riding around and shooting at Reno’s men, who were dismounted and in skirmish line…the last I saw of Reno’s men they were fighting in the valley and the line was falling back.” (Graham, 290).
If the skirmish line was 200 yards long, it would take 2 minutes, 40 seconds for the last dismounted cavalryman to walk into the timber; half that at the double-time (using 2.5 mph for infantry). Martin arrives at the top of the hill just in time to see...timber and Indians. Now we can fix Gray in this particular instance by having Boston and/or Martin giddy-up a little faster on their horsies or have Reno and the boys fight a few minutes longer on the skirmish line-—but that’s just supposin’ Gray was broke in the first place. So if he ain't broke don't fix him. Thanks for the tip.
v/r
Wrangler
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 7:00:54 PM
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Yeah, yeah, but what about my mule naming ceremony?
Also, I remain puzzled by the interest in the 30 minute wait on the 23rd. Are you assuming it took 30 minutes for the train to catch up? They'd been moving without halt for five or six hours, it could just have been a reasonable excuse to take a breather, but the train made it up in much shorter time.
Your confidence in my ability to catch up is touching, but perhaps unfounded. I cannot see where you are going with this beyond the possibilities already mentioned. |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 05 2004 : 7:59:04 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Again, I don't see the meaningful conflict, despite all your off stage clash of cymbal and threatening portentious music.
Define “meaningful” so I know what it looks like and can point it out. Ya think less cymbal and more timpani? I was going for the 2001: A Space Odyssey effect. ‘Course the Indiana Jones feel would be good too.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
On June 23, if they waited 30 minutes for the train to catch up, were they waiting for the train as a unit with the lead mule 30 minutes behind or only elements spread all over the road due to lousy packing in rugged country? Are you (or is the testimony) saying the pack train, as a unit, fell behind 30 minutes or only that its tail was dragging way behind? If they waited thirty minutes for the last mule to bump into the penultimate, that wouldn't indicate a huge lag. Would such testimonial conflict with Gray's timetable raise an eyebrow within that regiment or a sustained 'eh, what can you do?' response.
Wait. Let me check…hmmm…nope, I haven’t written the piece yet.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
And again, all Gray is doing is finding the start and end, calculating the time, and applying it to plausibility, which is rate, not speed. This might have resulted in his average and lower 'speeds,' but I'm not seeing implausibilities emerging from this possibility of yours yet.
After reading this three times…uh…I still don’t think I get it. Lemmee see if I’m trackin’ by using an example:
Gray finds a starting place and time (e.g. place = the divide halt; time = Wallace/McDougall time estimate of 12:32 from the first step of our first mule (and put Boston next to it--and the penultimate mule is in his usual position directly in front of the last mule). Gray finds an ending place and calculates time as follows. Place = Lone Tepee 8 miles away; Time = distance/mph or 8 miles divided by Gray’s unsubstantiated 3 mph = 2 hours, 40 minutes. Add 20 minutes for a watering halt and presto—we’re at Lone Tepee at 3:32. Right?
Now if we substituted 2, 4, 5 or 6 mph for Gray’s unsubstantiated 3 mph for the pack train, then presto we’d be there at Lone Tepee at a different time…and all the evidence relevant to the interconnections associated with the arrival of the trains at Lone Tepee now has to be reviewed to see what is now possible and impossible; and of the possible, what is probable. March rate becomes the deciding criteria for evaluating the "possibles and impossibles" of the body of evidence. This is the method used by Gray.
Is that what you were saying? If so, the only variable in this equation is the rate of march—3 mph which has no basis at all other then finding things in one’s bottom. Is this strong enough criteria for weighing evidence?
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
He may - or may not - have misused rate and speed but so might some of the testimony, especially in the manner that some has come down to us through third parties. The glossary of terminology has to be established and maintained, and I sincerely doubt that, in regards to LBH, it has ever existed at all since it made it into the media before into a formal record, and trying to back load it is perilous.
Dare we go on? Through the tangled jungles of third parties? Across the burning sands of the glossary of terminology? …(the timpani sounds portentously and--spelled correctly) Yes! It’s all we can do cuz we like syllogisms.
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
Just make sure the mule named for me was the most stubborn and loud and bearing the sobriquet of something like Arnold Son of Golgatha out of Estelle. Anyway, Milne wasn't born yet, was he?
Done!
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
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Posted - January 06 2004 : 1:28:10 PM
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"Gray Maneuvers at the Morass: Or How 15 to 30 Gets Ya 20"
quote:
Originally posted by Wrangler
[quote][i]Now if we substituted 2, 4, 5 or 6 mph for Gray’s unsubstantiated 3 mph for the pack train, then presto we’d be there at Lone Tepee at a different time…and all the evidence relevant to the interconnections associated with the arrival of the trains at Lone Tepee now has to be reviewed to see what is now possible and impossible; and of the possible, what is probable. March rate becomes the deciding criteria for evaluating the "possibles and impossibles" of the body of evidence. This is the method used by Gray.
Continuing with the thought above, Benteen’s watering halt at the morass is an example of Gray’s method in action. The question at hand is how long was this halt. The relevant evidence is Benteen’s, “This watering did not occasion the loss of 15 minutes…” (Gray, 263), and Godfrey’s testimony that it lasted “20 or 30 minutes” (Gray, 264). From this there are three scenario’s that should be tested to determine what is possible or impossible (i.e. the watering halt lasted 15, 20 or 30 minutes). In addition, given that these are estimates by the participants days or years after the fact, we could add several additional scenarios—25 minutes for instance as an average of Godfrey’s times, or 22.5 as an average of the extremes of all three times, etc. We could also test for extremes by adding a 10 minute and 35 minute scenario. However, Gray merely informs us that, “This testimony prompts me to choose 20 minutes” (Gray, 264). Why not 15 or 30? Though not stated by Gray, these other scenarios fall into the impossible category as determined by an unsubstantiated march speed that renders them so.
Should we care? Gray ascribes particular importance to his solution for this particular set of contradictory evidence. He observes, “The exact location of the morass has never been certain, for it was seasonal and there are many potential sites along Reno Creek. All accounts agree only that the morass was above the lone tepee. Benteen’s route and the packtrain interconnection provide the best evidence for its approximate location” (Gray, 264). The “best evidence” in this case was determined by unsubstantiated march speeds. By changing these variables to different march speeds, one can justify a 15 or 30 minute watering halt at a morass whose approximate location is now somewhere else. In either case, the march speed used then renders Gray's "possible" 20 minute halt scenario--"impossible".
It’s a real Rube Goldberg device, but that’s how time-motion analysis of evidence works--or doesn’t--given the data inputted into the machine. And that's how 15 to 30 gets ya 20.
v/r
Wrangler
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
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Posted - January 06 2004 : 3:09:21 PM
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Math for Mules: Or How the Pack Trains Won the Kentucky Derby
In response to my posting with regards to the distance and speed the packtrains had to travel to get to the “8 miles from Lone Tepee” start point at the division halt, the following question was posed, “given the downhill, isn't it possible that they surged past the slistering 3mph walk for awhile following a broken trail?” (it is uncertain at this point what the meaning of the word “slistering” is in this context—but I’ll give my own ideas in a moment).
Let’s examine this question to see if we can determine an answer. We will rate success as having Boston Custer arrive as Gray forecasts—in the nick o’ time to view Reno in the valley. In a previous post, I postulated that it took 2 minutes, 40 seconds for the skirmish line to walk into the timber. Let’s round this estimate up to 3 minutes because we don’t like decimal points. Therefore, we must have Boston in viewing range between 3:33 (when Gray sez Reno withdrew the skirmish line) and 3:36. So we can get at the downhill mule math back at the division halt, we will keep all variables proposed by Gray constant—to include Boston’s march “speed” beyond the 8 miles to Lone Tepee start point.
Our worst case scenario (Strung-out) put Boston arriving at the scene overlooking the valley fight between 3:39:30 to 3:44:30. We use the worse case scenario because if we can get this one to work--the others will too. As the last moment for BC to see cavalry dudes in this scenario is at 3:36, we need to have the pack trains giddy-up fast enough to shave off a minimum of 3 ½ minutes. Cuz BC needs time to see sumthin’ down yonder in the valley (remember, being fully fluent in Custer’s plans—which seem to have escaped the comprehension of his battalion commanders—BC needs to be able to translate what he saw in a meaningful fashion to his big brother…)--so let’s add a minute. That gives us four minutes worth of giddy-up by the mules for us to achieve the success as defined above.
In the Strung-out Scenario, at 3 mph our mules covered the 680 yards to the “8 miles to Lone Tepee start point” in 7 minutes. Lopping off the four minutes worth of giddy-up time we need, the lead mules have to get to the start point in 3 minutes (The mules Penultimate and his buddy, Tail-end Charlie are different math problems). This is a piece of cake if they go about 8 mph (7.75 mph if you like decimal points). If a pack mule could do that, I’d say he was slistering. Gray would prolly say that too.
The range of grades for the trail in the vicinity of the division halt is 3% to 0% (from east to west) and averages about 2%. We'll use 3% cuz we need lots of giddy-up oout of our long-eared friends! According to data derived from studies posted in the Journal of Experimental Biology (JEB2551, pg. 221-227; and JEB2866, pg. 2195-2200), a horse under load enjoys a 103% increase in speed walking down a 3% grade. Now a horse isn’t a mule so this is an interpolation--but 103% of 3 mph = 3.09 mph. I wouldn’t like decimal points either if I was hoping for a "surge" caused by a downhill grade.
v/r
Wrangler |
Edited by - Wrangler on January 06 2004 3:14:36 PM |
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 3:32:45 PM
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I'm not where I can research this, but:
103% is not a 103% increase. You say a fully loaded horse "enjoys a 103% increase in speed" at your gradient, which has emerged not far on your homestead not far from where you say Gray got his speeds. A one hundred percent increase of 3 mph is 6 mph. One hundred percent of 3 mph is 3. The horse's speed increased 3%.
BC left the pack train at around 2:17 about 2.5 miles from the LT, according to Gray and, I think, testimony, so I remain unsure how you're flensing his time out, or why the arrival of the pack train at the morass, wherever it was, affects that rider's rate/speed or what he could/might have seen that I don't think mattered anyway.
Perhaps we'll find out. Or, as you say, oout. |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
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Posted - January 06 2004 : 3:48:30 PM
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| We must have gone to different schools for math. On my planet, 100% of 3 = 3. 200% of 3 = 6. 103% of 3 = 3.09 |
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 6:46:59 PM
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Here on earth as well, but you might have forgiven me the 9/100's rounding it off, for heaven's sake. In any case, when you talk about the percentage of 'increase'you are not talking about the original number. If someone says the number of math students, currently 10, underwent a 50% increase overnight, the math class now has 15 students, not five as it could be if you merely said change rather than increase. You could not say the class had undergone a 150% increase; it's an increase of 50%. The resultant amount is 150% of the original. A 150% increase (15 students) would give you 25 students, 250% of the original.
You, via the quote, said the speed increase was 103% when you meant to say, I think, that the speed, not the increase, was 103% of what it is at level walking, and a 3 (okay, 3.09%)increase.
Candy ass, yeah, but you're trying to partially score against Gray because he didn't use the same glossary of terminology as the army or you.
And Gray is pretty clear that, while he did say speed, he meant 'rate' by your definitions, because he emphasizes (and testimony supports) that the pack train was a cluster duck of ongoing fiascos and its journey composed of numerous halts to have things tightened up, picked up, rearranged. So, after all the stops and starts, he makes a reasonable case for 3mph.
In any case, how does this affect Boston Custer, who left the train early at a hypothetical and unknown speed and gait? |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 7:14:19 PM
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| Drop an anchor. You are drifting. |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 7:24:23 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
how does this affect Boston Custer, who left the train early at a hypothetical and unknown speed and gait?
Let’s wipe the slate clean for the moment. Let’s pretend Gray’s Custer’s Last Campaign does not exist. It is now 1990 and somebody gets a bright idea that maybe a time-space motion-analysis might shed some light on evolution of the Battle of the Little Bighorn. Maybe this analysis can help us determine from the conflicting testimony what is possible and what is impossible. We have no preconceived notions of march speeds or march rates but we think they are important to our quest. So--we read up on ‘em.
We find a body of evidence that suggests gait speeds for cavalry are: the walk – 3.75 mph, the trot – 7.5 mph, the gallop – 10 mph. We accept that Roger Darling’s work in Benteen’s Scout-to-the-Left is as good as it gets in analyzing the distances associated with this event, and that the off-trail distance was 7 ¾ miles (see note below). We know from testimony that the pack trains had trouble keeping up throughout the days preceding and during the battle. All we can find out about mules is that they are like horsies ‘cept different—nobody recorded gait speeds for these quadrupeds that we can lay our mitts on. The most positive thing we know is that the loudest and most stubborn one in the pack train is named Arnold Son of Golgatha. From what we do know, can we determine the march speed of the pack trains on 25 June 1876? Unfettered by existing notions, we think we just might and proceed.
The distance from the “Regulation Scenario” location of the pack trains at the division halt to the “8-miles-to-Lone-Tepee” start point is 545 yards. The distance from the “8-miles-to-Lone-Tepee” start point to the point where Benteen rejoins Custer’s trail on Reno Creek (as described by Darling) is about 7.05 miles. At 3.75 mph, Benteen arrives at Reno Creek at 2:12 and is joined by Boston Custer. Benteen sights the trains ¾ to 1 mile to the east of his location. This means the trains have traveled 6 to 6 ¼ miles since leaving the division halt at 12:32. To be at this point at 2:12 (i.e. ¾ to a mile from Benteen’s juncture at Reno Creek), the trains rate of march had to be between 3.59 - 3.73 mph. As this is close to our 3.75 cavalry walking speed—and not knowing any better at this point—we proceed on to see if we can discover the location of the morass. To be continued...(musical selection is The Beer Barrel Polka)
(Note: In his work, Darling cites 4 mph as the standard cavalry walk but reduces it to 3.4 mph. I assume this is to insure the proper lash-up down the trail with the pack trains that he has moving at an unsubstantiated 3 mph. Darling footnotes Kulhman’s Legend into History as his source of the 4 mph regulation walk. Kuhlman does not footnote his source, nor does he propose a speed for the pack trains). |
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Dark Cloud
Brigadier General
USA
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 8:49:18 PM
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In 1990, we still had Dr. DeWolf's timed marches of the Reno Scout from June 10 to 19, 1876. He didn't have the huge train, but he did have a Gatling, which had the odometer. There is no way to prove that the numerouos annoyances provided by the gatling equalled the horrors of Arnold & Friends (I've actually grown quite fond of Arnold...is he well?)but I will suggest it.
Two Hundred Forty and one half miles in seventy nine and one half hours of effort over very similar ground and the cavalry's averaged (rate) was 3.03 mph. Is this more valid than the manual, composed by military giant St. George Cooke at who knows what Polo Club while sipping some revolting drink or other? I'd say yes. Gray says this is standard walking speed, "especially on 1/6 forage." I cannot speak for him, but what he probably means is 'real life' speed rate of tired, hot, underfed, and thirsty horses.
Nobody accused Reno of deliberately keeping a slow pace; it seems not to have occassioned any comment at all, which would suggest normalcy.
Are there any rates from the Gibbon column or Terry's that would indicate a systematic error of 25% to indicate that even horses made 4 mph or above at a walk over this ground? From any other cavalry adventure under similar circumstances and ground is there evidence that 'meaningfully' contradicts this first hand, first person evidence? |
Dark Cloud
copyright RL MacLeod
darkcloud@darkendeavors.com
www.darkendeavors.com
www.boulderlout.com |
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Wrangler
Lieutenant
Status: offline |
Posted - January 06 2004 : 10:08:55 PM
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So Mr. DC,
I understand you are lookin' fer work...sez here ya wanna do some heavy liftin' on this thread. Hmmm...let's look at your resume...
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Cloud
With the exception of physics, virtually everything I learned in school through high school - about astronomy, dinosaurs, history, geology - has been proven wrong in my lifetime. Irrefutably wrong, in most cases. I still sometimes refer to dinosaurs as reptiles, but they were not because they could not have been by logical deduction and the fossil record. Although diehards persist in arguing it, the brutes were birds or, rather, birds are the lineal descendents of dinosaurs. Looking at an ostrich, I have no problems with that. But I can't prove it.
Sez here ya know some physics. Is that so? Good. Seems like you have a record of challengin' the 'stablishment. We like that in our people cuz we'd like you to look at DeWolf's march tables; ya know--the one's in Gray's clothin'? Sumthin' stinks there sure. Yeah...figure out what he's up to with that thing. What's that? Oh no. Don't worry...ain't no reptiles in this problem--just some research. Ya know...crack open some books an' stuff. Use some o' that deduction stuff you wuz talkin' about. Can ya handle that? Good. Oh...uh...Don't mention nuthin' 'bout ostriches and such with the team--that's kinda weird. Scares 'em. Report back when ya got sumthin' substantive ta say. Good luck. We're all countin' on you...
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John Gray: The Tail That WagsThe Dog--Still
